Uzbekistan's Foreign Trade Strategy: Economic Analysis of WTO and EAEU Directions

Malika Toshpulatova

doi:10.36690/2674-5208-2025-4-33-44

Authors

Malika Toshpulatova International Islamic Academy of Uzbekistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36690/2674-5208-2025-4-33-44

Keywords:

GDP, share of agriculture, share of industry, unemployment rate, econometric model, World Trade Organization, WTO, Eurasian Economic Union, EAEU, Uzbekistan, international trade, foreign trade, trade policy

Abstract

The article examines how Uzbekistan’s participation in international trade agreements can influence national economic performance. The focus is placed on two alternative integration trajectories, accession to the World Trade Organization and the expansion of cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union. The analysis considers how these trajectories may affect GDP dynamics, sectoral composition, and labour-market outcomes, with particular attention to agriculture, industry, and unemployment. The objective is to assess and compare the potential economic effects of Uzbekistan’s WTO accession and deeper EAEU cooperation by estimating their associations with GDP, structural shifts between agriculture and industry, and changes in unemployment. The study applies an econometric modelling approach. Gross domestic product is specified as the dependent variable. The independent variables include the unemployment rate, selected agricultural indicators, the share of industry, a WTO integration factor, and an EAEU cooperation factor. These integration factors are operationalized as indicators capturing the presence and intensity of engagement with the respective trade frameworks. The calculations suggest that Uzbekistan’s GDP could increase by approximately 0.16% following WTO accession. The results also indicate that trade agreements are associated with structural changes in the economy, including shifts in the balance between agriculture and industry and measurable effects on employment processes. Overall, the findings support the conclusion that the choice of integration pathway can have macroeconomic relevance beyond trade flows, affecting sectoral ratios and labour-market conditions. Further research should test the robustness of these estimates using alternative model specifications and dynamic frameworks, including lag structures and scenario-based simulations. Future studies should also refine the measurement of integration intensity, incorporate additional control variables such as investment, productivity, exchange rates, and external demand, and extend the analysis to distributional effects across regions and social groups. A sector-specific assessment of competitiveness and import dependence would further clarify the conditions under which trade liberalization yields sustained growth gains.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Malika Toshpulatova, International Islamic Academy of Uzbekistan

Doctoral student of the Institute of Macroeconomic and Regional Studies, International Islamic Academy of Uzbekistan, Tashkent

References

Ahmadjonov, A. X., et al. (2022). Jahon savdo tashkiloti va ko‘p tomonlama savdo tizimi [World Trade Organization and the multilateral trading system] (O‘quv qo‘llanma [Study guide]). Toshkent, Uzbekistan.

Baroncini, E. (2017). From Turkey-Textiles to Peru-Additional Duty: The contribution of the WTO case-law on the relation between the Marrakesh system and regional trade agreements. In Czech Yearbook of Public & Private International Law (pp. 478-495). Eva Roztočoková Publishing.

Dadabayev, U., & Ismailova, N. (2024). Oʻzbekistonning Jahon savdo tashkilotiga aʼzo boʻlishning oʻziga xos xususiyatlari [Specific features of Uzbekistan’s accession to the World Trade Organization] (Monograph). (Publisher not specified).

Dragneva, R., & Wolczuk, K. (2017). The Eurasian Economic Union: Deals, rules and the exercise of power. Chatham House.

Ethier, W. J. (2004). Political externalities, nondiscrimination, and a multilateral world. Review of International Economics, 12(3), 303-320.

Ethier, W. J. (2008). International trade agreements. In Contemporary and Emerging Issues in Trade Theory and Policy(pp. 381-395). Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Eurasian Development Bank. (2020-2022). Eurasian economic integration: Analytical reports. https://eabr.org/en/analytics/integration-research/

Gupta, S. (2008). Changing faces of international trade: Multilateralism to regionalism. Journal of International Commercial Law and Technology, 3, 260.

Handley, K., & Limão, N. (2017). Policy uncertainty, trade, and welfare: Theory and evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review, 107(9), 2731-2783.

International Monetary Fund. (2015). Republic of Armenia: Selected issues. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2016/12/31/Armenia-Selected-Issues-42941

International Monetary Fund. (2016). Kyrgyz Republic: Selected issues. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2016/12/31/Kyrgyz-Republic-Selected-Issues-44102

Jensen, J., Rutherford, T., & Tarr, D. (2010). Modeling services liberalization: The case of Russia’s WTO accession(World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5408). World Bank. https://documents.worldbank.org/

Kostyunina, G. M. (2020). Regionalism in the modern world economy: Evolution and main trends. Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 20(2), 303-317.

McCaig, B., & Pavcnik, N. (2018). Export markets and labor allocation in a low-income country. American Economic Review, 108(7), 1899-1941.

Murphy, J. P., & McLarney, C. (2018). Regionalism and the multilateral trading system: The role of regional trade agreements. In Geopolitics and Strategic Management in the Global Economy (pp. 1-18). IGI Global.

Normatov, J. (2018). Uzbekistan’s long way to the World Trade Organization. L’Europe en Formation, 385(1), 104-111.

Opoku Awuku, E. (2016). Developing and least-developed countries and mega-regional trade and investment agreements. In European Yearbook of International Economic Law 2016 (pp. 615-626). Springer International Publishing.

Perskaya, V. V., Morkovkin, D. E., Chupin, A. L., Mamedov, T. N., & Zvereva, A. D. (2024). Transition to polycentrism and the transformation of regional trade agreements. Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 24(1), 126-141.

Pierce, J. R., & Schott, P. K. (2016). The surprisingly swift decline of US manufacturing employment. American Economic Review, 106(7), 1632-1662.

Romanchyshyna, I. (2023). Regionalism and multilateralism: The WTO perspective. In Technical Barriers to Trade in “New Generation” RTAs and in the WTO Agreements: Conflict or Complementarity? (pp. 47-105). (Publisher not specified).

Rose, A. K. (2004). Do we really know that the WTO increases trade? American Economic Review, 94(1), 98-114.

Subramanian, A., & Wei, S. J. (2007). The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly. Journal of International Economics, 72(1), 151-175.

Tsyhankova, T., et al. (2022). Free trade agreements in the world trade system: Benefits and models. Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice, 6(47), 172-181.

Wei, Z. (2011). Regional trade liberalisation: A theoretical review of dynamic time-path and stability issues. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 25(1), 1-14.

Zinchenko, A. A., & Radionov, S. A. (2023). Analysis of the effects produced by trade liberalization in the Republic of Uzbekistan and the EAEU. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 34(1), 142-149.